Inflation in the 'fuel and power' basket in December slumped to 8.38 per cent, nearly half of 16.28 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 1.48 per cent in October, as manufactured products turned costlier. The WPI inflation was 1.32 per cent in September and zero per cent in October last year. This is the highest level of wholesale price index-based (WPI) inflation since February when it was 2.26 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
Slowdown in industrial production notwithstanding, a marginal increase in inflation raised the clamour for another round of rate cut by the Reserve Bank on April 4 to boost economic activity.
Continuing decline in food prices, including vegetables, pulled wholesale price inflation to a five year low of 1.77 per cent in October.
Going forward, the February factory output may be impacted as several industries such as automobiles, technology, pharma and fashion have some exposure to imports of raw and intermediate materials from China.
Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti and Nestle were among the laggards. Shares of HCL Technologies were trading over 1 per cent lower even after the company reported a 7.6 per cent year-on-year rise in June quarter net profit on the back of new order wins.
In December, the index fell a provisional 0.73 per cent.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
In December 2014, it was (-)0.50 per cent.
Inflation in food articles basket was 6.99 per cent In May, 2019, down from 7.37 per cent in April. However, onion prices spiked in May with inflation at 15.89 per cent, as against (-) 3.43 per cent in April.
Inflation in food articles inched up to 0.69 per cent in September.
Industrial output had slowed to 5-month low of 2.1% in March.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
The Aam Aadmi Party's decision to disallow foreign direct investment (FDI) in Delhi's retail sector has a taker of sorts in economics Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz.
According to the global financial services major, inflation may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the monsoon likely to push up food prices and geopolitical uncertainties seen pumping up global commodity rates.
The central bank is struggling to do so, after unleashing a panicky expansionary policy after the Lehman crisis.
Andhra Pradesh posted 8.14% consumer inflation in October.
Vegetable prices which had witnessed a 21.16 per cent contraction in June, shot up by 21.95 per cent in July.
Maintaining 4 per cent inflation is appropriate for India as targeting a lower rate could impart deflationary bias to the monetary policy, said a Reserve Bank paper. Under the current dispensation, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The paper, authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and another official Harendra Kumar Behera, has found a steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1-4.3 per cent since 2014.
'I wonder if they will keep it up after the elections.' 'I fear they'll start questioning eligibility -- income, age, bank accounts -- and eventually stop the scheme altogether.'
The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was (-)4.54% in Sep.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
In fuel and power segment, inflation saw a sharp surge to a near double digit inflation at 9.99 per cent, against 4.37 per cent in July.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
Demonetisation to result in short-run disruptions in cash-intensive sectors like retail, hotels, restaurants and transportation, RBI said while announcing the Monetary Policy
India's retail inflation is the highest among the BRICS group of emerging economies.
WPI-based inflation falls to 5-month low of 6.16%.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
The RBI targets inflation at 6 percent by January 2016 and 4 percent for 2017/18.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from 7.8 per cent earlier on rising inflation and the longer-than-expected Russia-Ukraine conflict. In its Global Macro Update to Growth Forecasts, S&P said inflation remaining higher for long is a worry, which requires central banks to raise rates more than what is currently priced in, risking a harder landing, including a larger hit to output and employment. S&P had in December last year pegged India's GDP growth in the 2022-23 fiscal, which began on April 1, 2022, at 7.8 per cent.
India's annual industrial output grew at a slower-than-expected pace of 3.6 percent in September.
What came to the rescue of the IIP numbers in February were mining and electricity.
'Go for a base cover of Rs 10 lakh and then buy a super top-up of Rs 90 lakh.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Major Indian carmakers are preparing for sluggish domestic PV sales growth of just 1-2 per cent in FY26.
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